We Live in the Future
Sure, I still want my jetpack and hovercraft, but we DO live in the future. In a talk I gave recently, I illustrated this position with few small examples of how far we’ve come.
When I was born, my father (an IBM programmer) used some cutting-edge computer technology to make my birth announcements. See images below.
How did he use these? He made birth announcements on 96-column punch cards in which the punches spelled out the word “BOY.”
In 1972, here’s what the cutting-edge of MEDLINE looked like to most users:
According the NLM’s Janet Zipser, MEDLINE was the first remote access, real-time database in existence. By the end of 1972 about 150 libraries had access to MEDLINE® all at medical schools and research facilities. The rate was $6/hour, a 4-fold reduction over direct dial. The highest speed available was 30 characters/second. Most people had 10 characters/second Texas Instrument Silent 700s.
Please understand how amazingly fast people thought 30 characters/second was. Please also understand how that compares to today’s speeds:
And now PubMed is available to everyone with an internet connection…for free. Anna Kushnir-type gripes aside, this is amazing.
I looked at what storage memory cost circa 1979:
Compare that to the flash drive I keep in my pocket at most times:
The IBM 3340 Direct Access Storage Facility was introduced in March 1973 …Two, three or four 3340 drives could be attached to the IBM System/370 Model 115 processor — which had been announced concurrently with the 3340 — providing a storage capacity of up to 280 million bytes.
In order to match the storage capacity of my flash drive, this is how many IBM 3340s you’d need:
In order to match the storage capacity of the laptop I was using at the time, this is how many IBM 3340s you’d need:
iTunes, as far as I can tell, has over 11 Million tracks.
But what brought this all to mind was something I stumbled across via PopURLs the other day:
http://i.imgur.com/y2Rurl.jpg
We live in the future.
[EDIT]
Via Joe (http://friendfeed.com/jokrausdu), here’s what 200 MB looked like in 1970:
200 MBs in 1970
[/EDIT]
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:08 am
Very nice. (Even though you’re comparing rotating storage in the past to solid-state storage today, which makes the changes slightly less dramatic. Still, great piece..and I suppose the sheer portability of flashram *is* part of the story.)
March 23rd, 2010 at 8:34 am
I thought about going into that, Walt- but decided it would not be of value to my target audience.
March 23rd, 2010 at 9:32 am
That makes excellent sense. If (OK, *when*) I reference your post in a future C&I, I’ll expand appropriately…since the audience is probably different.
March 23rd, 2010 at 9:36 am
LOVE this post! HI DAVID!
March 23rd, 2010 at 11:20 am
I’m gonna’ be mentioned in C&I? Cool! Hi Mary!
March 23rd, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Well, eventually, I think, but maybe not for a few months. Still, it’s a great post, and one that I can make use of, so…
March 23rd, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Supporting evidence, http://holykaw.alltop.com/what-200mb-looked-like-in-1970-5
March 23rd, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Put me in mind of this
http://www.threadless.com/product/63.html
That I bought for my brother some time back now…
March 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
Added that to the post, Walt.
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:05 pm
(As also commented on the post: Joe/africker deserves credit for the link to the 1970 disk drive.)
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:15 pm
oops. Edited post again.
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:27 pm
Heck, it’s even freakier if you look at rotating storage. Smallest internal HD I could find at NewEgg was 40GB…for $20. They had a featured deal when I landed on that page for a drive in a really nice portable case: 1.5TB for $140. 1,572,864 MB. If I’m doing that math right, more than a billion dollars in 79 prices/dollars.
March 23rd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Much as I’d love to take credit for that 1970 photo, that was africker.
March 24th, 2010 at 6:34 am
very nice
March 24th, 2010 at 9:44 am
Ack. Will edit post again. Sorry, Joe!
March 24th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
Urm. I added nothing but a link to a silly tshirt at threadless! Something getting lost in translation I think.
March 25th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
FYI the MFCU was designed in San Jose. The smaller card was intended to reduce the size of equipment required for the larger 80 column card but on-line large disk drives obsoleted the device very quickly. You might have shown the first disk drive: the IBM 305 RAMAC, 5 million 6 bit character on 50 large disks!
March 25th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jason Griffey, David Rothman, Bob Kowalski, McGoogan Library, Allison Puderbaugh and others. Allison Puderbaugh said: RT @davidlrothman: Blogged: We Live in the Future: Sure, I still want my jetpack and hovercar, but we DO live in the future. In a tal… http://bit.ly/cb8Aca [...]
March 30th, 2010 at 11:18 am
David, great post! Sorry you didn’t also mention AIM-TWX, which was the first way that I searched online using a 10 cps TeletypeWriter Exchange device (@65 cents per min). Well, actually, my first computerized search of “MEDLINE” was a MEDLARS Demand Search in 1970, but that was part of my library school education. Nice to see the history all together. Thanks very much – - -
Carolyn
April 17th, 2010 at 7:39 am
Great Post David. It is amazing to see how technology has evolved! I feel much more powerful with my 1GB USB stick now….. haha